Poor Charlie's Almanack

"Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Wisdom of Charlie Munger" Reading Notes | Core Concepts of the Investment Research Institute: Multidisciplinary Thinking Models

The most important examples of these models include the redundancy backup model in engineering, the compound interest model in mathematics, the critical points, overturning moments, self-catalysis models in physics and chemistry, the modern Darwinian synthesis model in biology, and the cognitive bias model in psychology.

"Poor Charlie's Almanack" Reading Notes#

Core Concepts#

Multidisciplinary Thinking Models

Thinking models from hard sciences and engineering are the most reliable thinking models on Earth.
Biology / Physiology
Psychology

Lollapalooza Effect

The phrase invented by Munger for factors that mutually reinforce and greatly amplify each other's effects is the "Lollapalooza Effect."

Checklist

The items on the investment checklist are as follows: What are the current price and trading volume? How is the trading market? When will the annual report be disclosed? Are there other sensitive factors? Is there a strategy to exit the investment at any time? Is the money used to buy stocks better used elsewhere now or in the future? Is there enough liquidity on hand? Or must it be borrowed? What is the opportunity cost of this funding?

Charlie's Checklist

Dual-track analysis
Investment and decision-making checklist
Super simple common concepts
Psychology-based tendencies

Human Misjudgment Psychology#

List those psychological tendencies that are generally useful but often misleading.

Reward and punishment
- Super response tendency
Liking/loving tendency
Disliking/hating tendency
Avoiding doubt tendency
Avoiding inconsistency tendency
Curiosity tendency
Kantian fairness tendency
Envy/jealousy tendency
Reciprocity tendency
Tendency influenced by simple associations
Simple psychological denial to avoid pain
Overrating oneself tendency
Overoptimism tendency
Super response tendency to deprivation
Social proof tendency
Contrast error response tendency
Stress influence tendency
Error in measuring availability tendency
Forgetting tendency when not used
Chemical error influence tendency
Aging - error influence tendency
Authority - error influence tendency
Nonsense tendency
Reason valuing tendency
Lollapalooza tendency - the tendency for multiple psychological tendencies to combine to create extreme outcomes

Short Stories#

I just want to know where I will die in the future, so I won't go there.
How to find an excellent spouse. Charlie said the best way is to make yourself worthy of her/him.
Hammerman: To a person holding a hammer, the world looks like a nail.
Pavlovian association
The "surfing" model: When a surfer successfully rides the crest of a wave and stays there, he can ride for a long time. But if he doesn't make it up, he will be swallowed by the waves.
20 punching opportunities - this represents the number of investment opportunities you can have in your life. Once you finish punching your card, you can no longer invest.
"Shepico Syndrome"

It refers to the extremely corrupt situation in the New York Police Department that Frank Shepico joined. Shepico was nearly shot for refusing to go along with his colleagues in the police department.

Horse racing
Butt-kicking competition
"Scooping gray gold"

Key Chapters#

Chapter 2 Munger's Life, Learning, and Decision-Making Methods - Investment Principles Checklist
Chapter 4 Charlie's Eleven Talks - Human Misjudgment Psychology
Chapter 5 Articles, Reports, and Comments - "Never Enough Greed," "High Financial Skills," "Black-hearted" and the Tragedy of "Brain-dead" Countries

Classic Quotes#

"In books, there are houses of gold."

Become friends with the greats who have passed away.

Charlie always starts thinking about problems in reverse.

First see the disadvantages, then attack the advantages.

Learn the truly important theories in all disciplines and form what is called "universal wisdom" based on them.

Fundamental human nature, basic truths, and core principles of many disciplines.

"Don't just see the money," choose "clients you would want to be friends with."
You must first be a subordinate before you can become a leader. People should learn to play various roles.
Attempting to solve fundamental problems through philosophical inquiry is an ideal activity.
Pythagoras's philosophy is similar to Cicero's thought; he believed that people can be divided into three types: those who love wisdom, those who love reputation, and those who love self-interest.
Living in a secluded countryside helps cultivate reasonable values.
The best armor in old age is a life well-lived before it. - Charlie Munger
If you borrow someone else's car, don't forget to fill it up before returning it.

This is a terrible mistake, and we hope you won't make the same mistake again. But who doesn't make mistakes? We can overlook this matter. You did the right thing by admitting your mistake. If you try to cover up the mistake or delay confessing for a while, you will leave this company. But now we hope you stay.

Find what you are best at, and then persistently and joyfully do it well.
Think simply and act seriously.
In the business world, we often find that winning systems operate at nearly absurd extremes by maximizing or minimizing one or a few variables.
Conduct a comprehensive analysis of the internal operating conditions of the company you plan to invest in and its larger overall "ecosystem." He calls the tools he uses to make this assessment "multidisciplinary thinking models."
Charlie believes that being prepared, patient, self-disciplined, and impartial are the most basic guiding principles.
One of the most famous Munger traits: Don't trade too frequently.

The secret to making big money is not in buying and selling... but in waiting.

Albert Einstein's advice: "Scientific theories should be as simple as possible, but not overly simple."
20 punching opportunities - this represents the number of investment opportunities you can have in your life.
Graham reminds investors to make objective judgments about the value of stocks personally, without relying on the common manic-depressive behavior of financial markets.
Quickly eliminate what shouldn't be done, then launch a skilled, interdisciplinary attack on what should be done, and then, when the right opportunity arises - only when the right opportunity arises - take decisive action.
Emphasize knowable factors.
We just lower our heads and do our best to deal with the headwinds and tailwinds, reaping results every few years.
Regarding investment, we have three options: we can invest, we cannot invest, or it is too difficult to understand.
Charlie knows that there is no such thing as a risk-free investment; he looks for projects that are low risk and easy to understand.
(Buying) great companies at fair prices is better than (buying) ordinary companies at bargain prices.
Bad results are acceptable (because some outcomes are beyond their control), but being unprepared and making hasty decisions are unforgivable because these factors are controllable.
Investing is like playing baseball; to increase the score on the scoreboard, you must focus on the field, not the scoreboard. - Warren Buffett
Following the crowd will only bring you closer to the average (only achieving mediocre performance).
Master the thinking models of various disciplines skillfully.
Act only within your clearly defined circle of competence.

You must figure out what your skills are. If you play games that others play well and you know nothing about, you are destined to fail. That is a certainty. You must figure out where your strengths lie and compete within your circle of competence.

Understand human nature, the state of the world, how to think rationally, and most importantly, how to live a life of integrity, happiness, and kindness better.
We make money by remembering the obvious, not by mastering the profound. We never try to be very smart; instead, we continuously try not to become fools.
Don't deal with door-to-door salespeople.
Success means you must be very patient, yet able to take action when you know it's time to do so.
You must have a strong interest in understanding the reasons behind what is happening. If you can maintain this mindset over the long term, your ability to focus on reality will gradually improve.
Stock options not only increase a company's costs but also dilute equity.
Once bad people become wealthy, they will gain immense political power, and you cannot stop them from doing bad things, so the key is to nip such things in the bud.
You must know the important theories of important disciplines and use them frequently - use all of them, not just a few.
Many people absurdly cling to wrong ideas. Keynes said, "Introducing new ideas is not very difficult; the hard part is clearing out the old ideas."
The dangers brought by computers are numerous. People calculate too much and think too little.
Every day when you get up, strive to be a little smarter than you were before. Complete your tasks seriously and excellently.
Understanding everything is very difficult, but if you cannot understand it, you can hand the problem over to a smarter friend.
Carson's research method is to think about the problem in reverse. That is, to solve for X, you must first study how to get non-X.

Emphasizing reverse thinking: he always seeks evidence to disprove his existing theories, no matter how much he cherishes those theories or how hard-won they are.

Avoid the traps of life.

If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, but make allowance for their doubting too,
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise...

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

——Excerpt from the poem "If" that Charlie has always appreciated.

Economies of scale

Winner takes all situation
The steel required for the surface of a tank will increase at a square rate, while the capacity of the tank will increase at a cubic rate. In other words, when you expand the tank, you can get more volume with less steel.

Promotional techniques: Effective promotional techniques, new media communication and promotion;
Information advantage: Having high visibility to gain economies of scale;
Social proof: From psychology;

Before becoming a leader, success is about developing yourself. When you become a leader, success is about helping others develop.
Business tip: Never let anyone stand between you and your customers or suppliers.
If we can't be first or second, we prefer not to do it.
Being too large has disadvantages.

Reducing scale and increasing specialization can bring you huge advantages. Bigger is not always better.
Companies are not always winners - after a business grows, bureaucratic tendencies emerge, leading to negligence - this is also human nature.
The downside of large scale has always been that it leads to large, clumsy bureaucracies.

Establishing the right incentive mechanisms is a very, very important lesson.
Generally speaking, betting on the quality of the business is more prudent than betting on the quality of the management.
The effect of taxation

Holding stocks of great companies for the long term, just the taxes saved can add a lot to your wealth.

Huge sales of one-time consumables
Once you spot an opportunity, go all in.
Three basic principles

Don’t sell things you wouldn’t buy yourself.
Don’t work for people you don’t respect and admire.
Only work with people you like.

You don’t need to know everything; just absorb the best thoughts from various disciplines.
Fragrance can greatly promote consumption. So taste is extremely important.
In addition to utilizing multidisciplinary thinking models from different disciplines, I would also like to add that you should be wary of severe ideological biases.
What a person wants, he will believe.
The five elements of success are focus, acuity, organization, innovation, and communication.
If you lack this method of acquiring various major models and using them in combination, you will repeatedly fail.
The secret to success is to do some simple things, not to solve difficult problems.
What every faction says aligns with their natural biases.
When you don’t understand and have no relevant skills, don’t be afraid to say so.
His teaching method is very clever - because he doesn’t directly instill this principle in me, but lets me experience it through thinking. I must think for myself to understand.
The tendency to commit and maintain consistency. If you understand a principle through thinking, you will remember it better.
He is good at using clever metaphors to effectively convey his points.
To persuade others, using a bit of humorous metaphor is very helpful.
The most effective way to persuade a person is to start from that person's interests.
Master those principles that are obviously important and obviously correct.
The principle of operant conditioning - that is, people will repeat their last successful activities.
Einstein once summarized this well: "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not too simple."
It is wrong for teachers to teach students some principles without giving reasons or rarely explaining reasons!
The trick to learning, but just relying on this one speech is not enough. The right approach should be to write a book.
In terms of social psychology, the more people understand the various tendencies it reveals, the weaker the effects of those tendencies will become;
People should avoid strong political biases because they drive many people insane.
The best way to simplify tasks is to first solve those problems with obvious answers.
Only mathematics can reveal the true nature of science because mathematics seems to be the language of God.
Just thinking positively is not enough; you must engage in reverse thinking.
Every profession ultimately involves deceiving outsiders.

The real big effects, that is, the Lollapalooza effect, usually occur under the combined action of several factors.
Essentially, the business we want to do is to create and maintain conditioned reflexes. The trademark name and image of "Coca-Cola" will play the role of a stimulus, while buying and drinking our beverage is the response we desire.
How do people create and maintain conditioned reflexes? Well, psychology textbooks provide two answers: (1) through operant conditioning; (2) through classical conditioning, commonly referred to as "Pavlovian reflex."
Men's brains crave the drink held by the beautiful woman they cannot have.
Combining the following factors, (1) Pavlovian conditioning, (2) powerful social proof effect, (3) a drink that tastes great, refreshes, is cool, and can trigger operant conditioning, the tremendous synergy produced will boost our sales for a long time.

Competitors copying our taste will not hinder us from achieving our goals.
We must avoid the situation where consumers feel bored after drinking the beverage.
We must avoid losing our powerful trademark name.
Avoid the negative consequences of jealousy.
Be true to your name.
Once the taste of our brand occupies a new market, we must avoid making significant changes to the product's taste suddenly.

Psychology of higher education lacks interdisciplinary integration.

The situation of psychology and other disciplines being completely disconnected is very serious.

Achievement depends on four factors: first self-criticism, then curiosity, focus, and perseverance.
Fools have imagination but lack knowledge; scholars have knowledge but lack imagination.
True courage is not the brutal violence of a vulgar hero but the steadfast determination of virtue and reason.
What kills knowledge is not ignorance but ignorance of ignorance.
To achieve the best results

We must let students learn a large amount of interdisciplinary knowledge, persistently master all necessary skills that can be applied freely, have the ability to comprehensively and skillfully use various knowledge according to actual situations, and prove the positive and reverse thinking techniques used in algebra problems, along with the lifelong habit of checking "checklists."

If the truth contradicts a person's interests, that person will find it hard to accept the truth.
Compared to honest transactions of equal scale, the stimulating effect of undisclosed embezzled money on consumption is greater.
Companies that need new machines but have not yet purchased them are already spending money on them.
It is difficult for people to understand things that conflict with their interests.
Humanity's excessive pursuit of geometric growth on a finite Earth ultimately ends in painful failure.
Pleasure is the greatest motive for sin. - Plato
"If you want to persuade others, appeal to their interests, not to reason."
Economics always emphasizes interdisciplinary research more than other soft sciences.
Opportunity cost is a superpower.
Incentive mechanisms are also a superpower.
"Tragedy of the Commons."
Adam Smith is an extremely outstanding thinker and an extremely outstanding writer.
"Hammerman Syndrome."
Overemphasizing the importance of measurable factors while underestimating the importance of unmeasurable factors.

In fact, everyone tends to (1) overemphasize the importance of factors with relevant data because they give people the opportunity to use the statistical skills learned in higher education, and (2) not consider those potentially more important factors that lack relevant data.

Whatever thoughts he needs, he picks for himself.
Absorb the essence of all disciplines, point out the sources of reference, and use all knowledge in the simplest way possible.
Extreme success is likely caused by the following factors working together:

Maximizing or minimizing one or two factors.
Adding some successful factors to achieve greater effectiveness, which is often nonlinear, reminiscent of theories about critical points or critical substances in physics.
Fully exploiting several advantages.
Riding certain major trends.

The psychological factor of "reciprocity tendency."
Self-reflection is to destroy the ideas you love and have worked hard to obtain.
Roughly correct is better than precisely wrong.
If you want to increase sales, the correct approach is to raise prices, for example:

Luxury goods: Raising prices can enhance the "show-off" function of luxury goods; for example, after raising prices, it may seem to some consumers with a show-off mentality that its performance has also improved.
Non-luxury goods: Higher prices are perceived to mean better quality. This approach is particularly applicable to durable industrial products.
Raise prices and use the extra profits legally to improve product performance or sales systems.
Raise prices and use the extra profits illegally or unethically to promote sales, such as through bribing trading brokers or other practices harmful to end consumers - for example, sales commissions for open-end funds.

No bread, no law; no law, no bread.
The future belongs to those who can rise above the constraints of the Earth.
Human society can only develop after inventing the methods of invention; similarly, you can only progress after learning the methods of learning.
Learn all the important principles of all important disciplines.
If your correctness makes other dignified people feel embarrassed, you may provoke great revenge from others.

It is best to learn to hide your insights.

If a problem is difficult to solve, using reverse proof often makes it easier to resolve.
Be very careful to guard against strong ideologies, as they pose a great danger to your precious mind.
I feel I have no right to hold an opinion unless I can refute my position better than my opponent.
You don't need to have hope to persist.
Self-pity is of no help; self-pity always has negative effects.
Avoid being driven by perverse incentive mechanisms.
Perverse working relationships should also be avoided.
You should especially avoid working under people you do not respect or do not want to be like.
Develop the habit of checking checklists.
Let the best players play long games.
Every misfortune is a good opportunity to learn. People should not sink into self-pity but should use every blow to improve themselves.
If a person cannot control themselves, freedom is out of the question.

Self-discipline is freedom.

What troubles people is not things, but their views on things.
Always expect trouble to come and be prepared for how to deal with it when it arrives.

Be prepared, and you will be safe.

Complex bureaucratic procedures are not the best system for a civilized society. A better system is a seamless, non-bureaucratic web of trust.
What you should pursue in life is to cultivate a seamless web of trust as much as possible.
My sword is passed to those who can wield it.
An important management principle is, "Establish the right incentive mechanisms."
Prevent loopholes. Institutional design also needs to adhere to the following principles: try to avoid rewarding easily falsifiable things.
Countermeasures against the super response tendency of rewards and punishments are as follows:
(1) If the professional advice offered by a consultant is particularly beneficial to him, you should be especially wary of that advice;
(2) Learn and use the basic knowledge of the industry your consultant is in when dealing with them;
(3) Review, question, or change the advice you receive.
Bad behavior that receives rewards is particularly easy to become habitual.
Some people spend money to buy status, some people make money from status, and some people do both.
Consequences of liking/loving tendency
(1) Ignore the shortcomings of the object of their affection and comply with it;
(2) Prefer those who remind them of the object of their affection;
(3) Distort other facts for the sake of love.
Politics is the art of properly handling hatred.
Consequences of disliking/hating tendency
(1) Ignore the merits of the object of their dislike;
(2) Hate those who remind them of the object of their dislike;
(3) Distort other facts for the sake of hatred.
Maintaining many good habits in life while avoiding or quitting many bad habits is the wise way to live.
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
The right education should be a long process of enhancing cognitive ability so that we become wise enough to destroy those wrong ideas retained due to the tendency to refuse change.
Reciprocity tendency: Humans also have the extreme tendency to repay kindness with kindness and to retaliate with retaliation.
The standard method to defuse extreme hostility is for people to delay their reactions.
Be wary of flattery from salespeople.
Cialdini excellently demonstrated: "Experimenters" have the ability to mislead people by triggering their subconscious reciprocity tendencies.
What Cialdini's experimenters did was make small concessions, and then the other party made small concessions as well. Because Cialdini's subjects made this reciprocal concession subconsciously.

Just like Lu Xun's "opening a window":
Lu Xun said that if a room is too dark and someone suggests opening a window, it will inevitably be opposed by everyone. But if someone proposes to tear down the roof, they will come to mediate and agree to open a window.

Tendency influenced by simple associations
The correct countermeasure to avoid doing foolish things because of past successes is:
(1) Carefully examine each past success, identify the random factors in those successes to avoid being misled by those factors, thus exaggerating the probability of success for the new action planned;
(2) Look at what new dangers the new action will encounter that did not appear in past successful experiences.
Hatred and dislike can also cause cognitive errors due to simple associations.
The correct countermeasure is to consciously cultivate the habit of welcoming bad news.
Stay wise and informed.
Tendency influenced by simple associations

When buying lottery tickets, if the numbers are randomly assigned, the bets placed will be smaller, while if the numbers are chosen by the player, the bets will be larger. This is very irrational.

The "endowment effect," which overpraises one's personal belongings, reinforces people's love for their conclusions.
The correct countermeasure to prevent this foolishness is to downplay the impression of the interview and value the applicant's past performance.
Super response tendency to deprivation
The harm caused by loss is much greater than the pleasure brought by gain.
Countermeasures against extreme ideologies: Build a culture of extreme politeness.
Social proof tendency
For parents, rather than lecturing their children, it is better to control the quality of their friends.
People are most easily influenced by social proof tendencies when they feel confused or under pressure, especially when they are both confused and under pressure.
Contrast error response tendency
Often used to earn more money from customers purchasing goods and services.
A small mistake can sink a big ship.
Error in measuring availability tendency
The human brain tends to overestimate the importance of easily obtainable things, thus exhibiting availability - the error in measuring tendency.
The main countermeasures to avoid being influenced by availability - the error in measuring tendency

Usually, act according to procedures, including using checklists that are almost always very helpful.
Particularly emphasize the practice of looking for counter-evidence.
Seek out and hire knowledgeable, skeptical, and articulate people to play the opposing role of existing viewpoints.

Constructively applied to:
(1) Persuading others to reach the correct conclusion;
(2) As a tool to enhance memory, linking vivid images one after another with things people do not want to forget.
In fact, the great orators of ancient Greece and Rome used vivid imagery as a memory aid, allowing them to speak fluently and coherently without notes.
The main countermeasures to avoid being influenced by availability - the error in measuring tendency

Flight simulators
Wise people will practice all useful but rarely used skills from various disciplines throughout their lives and regard it as a responsibility for self-improvement.

People can reduce the influence of the forgetting tendency by being diligent.
The main countermeasures to avoid being influenced by availability - the error in measuring tendency
Continuously thinking and learning with joy can somewhat delay the inevitable decline process.
The main countermeasures to avoid being influenced by availability - the error in measuring tendency
Be very cautious when choosing who to give power to, because once authoritative figures come to power, they will receive assistance from the authority - the error influence tendency, making it very difficult to overthrow them.
Reason valuing tendency
German-style large enterprises have a very simple rule: you must clearly state who will do what, when, where, and why.
Well-functioning things, if encouraged and supported, usually perform better;
A business of re-insuring re-insurance
Buffett is a stock picker, while Munger is a questioner, a skeptic; Buffett tests his ideas through him.
The requirement for working with others is that you must clearly articulate your thoughts; just this rule can benefit you immensely.
No problem, this is a good company.
But is its stock price low enough?
Is its management composed of people that Munger and Buffett are satisfied with?
If the stock price is low enough to be purchasable, is it normal for it to be this cheap?
In Munger's words: "What is the catch behind this?
Are there hidden dangers that I do not see now?"
Most investment managers only compete in the circulating stock market. That is just a zero-sum game.
We love making money for those who have trusted us long ago, even when we were young and poor.
Accounting standards must make it difficult for idiots and fraudsters to falsify profits and net assets.
Set a margin of safety.
The phenomenon of undisclosed gray gold can be magnified and cause significant macroeconomic consequences because as long as the gray gold phenomenon continues for a long time, both victims and wrongdoers will believe they have become wealthy.

A book that changed my life - "Poor Charlie's Almanack." What if life came with a manual? An accurate guide on health, wealth, and everything you need to know.

What if life came with a manual? An accurate guide on health, wealth, and happiness. In today's love article, I will delve into my favorite book and try to summarize all 532 pages of key learning points.

I have read many books by many authors, and today I want to talk about the most important book in my library, "Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Wisdom and Wit of Charles T. Munger," which is the closest book I have found to a manual for life.

Charlie Munger is Warren Buffett's long-term partner at Berkshire Hathaway. Although Munger is not as famous, his influence is no less than that of Buffett. Bill Gates said that Charlie Munger is "the clearest thinker I have ever met," while Buffett calls him the ideal partner who is "both smart and wise."
"Poor Charlie's Almanack" contains the best advice given by Charlie Munger over 30 years, including 11 commencement speeches and roundtable discussions. He covers a wide range of topics, including rationality and decision-making, investing, and how to live a good life.
I will arrange this video according to the key concepts and learning points collected in the book. I will divide the article into five parts, similar to the key themes of the book: 1. Rationality and Decision-Making, 2. Understanding and Avoiding Psychological Biases, 3. Building Mental Models, 4. Understanding Investment and Business, 5. Character and Living a Good Life. I will break down each part into different points, so let's get into the first part: Rationality and Decision-Making.

1. Rationality and Decision-Making#

When asked to describe himself in one word, Charlie Munger chose "rational." He knows that he, like everyone else, has biases, and he trains himself to recognize cognitive biases and how to limit their influence.

Objectivity and Changing Ideas#

If you want to make better decisions, you need to seek the truth - what is really happening in the world, not what you want to believe is happening. Recognizing the truth is often painful - it may contradict your previous beliefs or desires, but recognizing reality is always better than self-deception.

First, recognize that it is easy to deceive yourself.
Second, you should gladly accept other viewpoints. You should seriously consider the arguments of others. In fact, strive to express their viewpoints better than they can themselves.

Third, after considering other viewpoints, you should be willing to change your mind at any time. Be willing to abandon your cherished ideas. Munger says that any year in which he does not abandon a cherished idea is a wasted year. Charlie also emphasizes the importance of avoiding extreme ideologies and blindly following ideas without understanding their pros and cons, and being able to make wise decisions after understanding both sides of an idea or situation.

Practice Divergent and Reverse Thinking#

Social proof bias refers to people's tendency to believe what others believe to enhance social cohesion. This leads humans to think like sheep, even when the ideas they believe in are wrong. Practicing reverse thinking can spark new ideas that may be more accurate than others' ideas.
Munger and Buffett often do this in their financial management. If you adopt the same investment practices as others, you can only achieve average returns. To achieve outstanding returns, you need a different way of thinking.

Inversion, Always Invert#

One way to practice divergent thinking is to invert your perspective on a situation and view it from the opposite angle. This can reveal new insights. "Many difficult problems can only be best solved by approaching them from the opposite side."
Here are some examples of inverted thinking:

Don't think about how something can succeed; think about how it can fail. "What could possibly go wrong?"
When physicists tried to modify Maxwell's electromagnetic laws to align with Newton's laws of mechanics, Einstein inverted the situation - he modified Newton's laws to conform to Maxwell's laws, leading to the discovery of special relativity.

Understand Your Circle of Competence#

To make the right decisions, you need to know what you are good at and what you are not. Munger calls this your "circle of competence" - knowing where your boundaries are and not stepping outside this circle.
Here is a detailed explanation of this idea:

"Knowing what you don't know is more useful than becoming smarter."
"People are all trying to become smarter - what I do is not become stupid, but that is harder than most people think."
"You must figure out what your talents are. If everyone else in the game has talents and you do not, you will lose."
"Having a manager with an IQ of 160 is great - unless he thinks an IQ of 180 is required."

In investing, both Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett know what they are good at and what they are not. They are unwilling to go beyond their circle of competence. For example, they have three baskets when investing: yes, no, and too difficult to understand.

First, Munger looks for businesses that are easy to understand, dominant, self-sustaining in all market environments, and thriving franchises. Most businesses do not meet this standard.
Certain industries, such as pharmaceuticals and technology, fall into the "too difficult to understand" category. Munger finds that the dynamics of software and computer chips are completely beyond their expertise, so they completely reject them. Munger and Buffett do not try to understand the obscure - they just try to remember the obvious.
"Hot" trades and IPOs are rejected (Munger believes these trades are overhyped and overpriced).

Learn from Others' Mistakes#

Munger and Buffett constantly read and learn, one reason being to learn from others' mistakes. You can learn indirectly from the terrible experiences of others to avoid the same fate.

Reduce Complexity#

Charlie strives to simplify complex situations down to the most basic, least emotional fundamental principles. However, in pursuing rationality and simplicity, he carefully avoids what he calls "physics envy," the universal human desire to simplify extremely complex systems (like those in economics) into one-size-fits-all Newtonian formulas. Instead, he faithfully follows Albert Einstein's advice: "Scientific theories should be as simple as possible, but not overly simple." Or in his own words, "What I oppose is being very confident and thinking you know for sure that your specific actions will bring more benefits than harms. You are dealing with highly complex systems where everything interacts."

2. Understanding and Avoiding Psychological Biases#

Munger is a student of human psychology, and he lists 25 psychological biases that distort the way you see the world and affect your decisions. This is a very important topic, and I will elaborate on it in my blog and videos, but here are some noteworthy biases:

Incentive Bias: Personal interests drive human behavior. If someone is rewarded for doing something, they will do it again and again.
Avoiding Doubt Tendency: Doubt is painful and can cause confusion and stress. When you feel doubt, you make decisions faster than you would after careful consideration.
Avoiding Inconsistency Tendency: People are reluctant to change. This applies to personal behavior, beliefs, relationships, and commitments. Once people believe something, they often find it hard to change their minds.
Simple Association Effect: When two items are placed together, the quality of one item transfers to the other. If you like something, you will also like other things associated with it. Conversely, the same applies.
Super Response to Deprivation: We hate things being taken away. Losing something triggers a strong backlash.
Social Proof: You think you can independently control your behavior, but in reality, you are just acting according to the observations of others. You think about their thoughts and mimic their behaviors.
Authority Misleading: Humans are mostly born followers of leaders, with only a few truly leading. People tend to follow authority blindly.
Lollapalooza: This is a "super tendency" - it involves the convergence of multiple tendencies that reinforce each other and lead to extreme outcomes. Examples include people joining extreme cults and the Milgram shock experiment.

The best way to prevent biases is to understand what they are and how they affect cognition, then create a checklist to check each bias and think about whether it has influenced your current judgment.

3. Building Mental Models#

Charlie Munger has a deep understanding of the world, and he refers to the main ideas from various fields as "mental models." He emphasizes the importance of multidisciplinary learning, connecting major ideas to form a grid, allowing these ideas to interact. This is similar to the interweaving of concepts in learning.
Inferior learning methods involve learning isolated facts that exist in independent units. You can recite facts but do not understand the ideas behind them or cannot apply those ideas to solve real-life problems. This is the failure of rote memorization, which is common in many educational systems.
Munger believes that an excellent learning method is to learn a large number of mental models and then assemble them into an interconnected grid or network.

What are Mental Models?#

You can think of "mental models" as important ideas within a field that have broad relevance beyond that field.
For example, the concept of "critical mass" comes from physics. In the field of physics, critical mass specifically refers to the amount of mass required to sustain a nuclear chain reaction - if the mass is below critical mass, the chain reaction will not self-sustain. But this concept generally applies beyond physics - for instance, it can apply to the minimum mass required to start any positive cycle, such as the minimum number of users needed for a social networking application to launch.
Other examples of mental models include "margin of safety" in engineering, "compound interest" in mathematics, and "feedback loops" in biology.

Learning Models from Different Fields#

The best ideas in the world exist in every major field. No single academic department can solve all problems. To become the most versatile problem solver, you need to collect mental models from each major field of study.
Modern academia tends to isolate research fields into separate departments. Ideas are narrowly defined, and experts within a field are mostly limited to their own area. Munger believes this is why literature professors can be respected in their field but considered unwise in other aspects of life.
When you combine models from different fields, it can produce astonishing results that others do not see.

The Grid of Mental Models#

As you collect more of these ideas, you will begin to connect them. For example, you might find that stock market fluctuations are a combination of psychological biases (loss aversion, social proof), biological feedback loops, physical critical mass, and mathematical random walks. These interconnected ideas form the grid of mental models.

4. Understanding Investment and Business Strategies#

In "The Poor Charlie Yearbook," Munger does not directly discuss the decision-making of Berkshire Hathaway, but he does share the general investment philosophies and practices that have led to their success over the decades.

Be Patient but Decisive#

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are successful investors because they can patiently wait for excellent opportunities. Unlike many investors, when they do not see an excellent opportunity, they do not mind staying on the sidelines, even for years. However, when they do see an excellent opportunity, they go all in.
Warren Buffett once said in a business school speech that if everyone were given a punch card with 20 holes and could only make 20 investments in their lifetime, everyone would make better investments. Once they have punched all 20 holes, they can no longer invest. In this case, investors would be more careful about which investments to make and would place big bets on the few investments they discover.

Look for Quality Companies#

In addition to looking for cheap deals, Munger also looks for high-quality companies. In summary, these are profitable companies with sustainable competitive advantages and good growth prospects.
The quality of a company may even outweigh its cheapness - "excellent companies sold at reasonable prices are better than ordinary companies sold at bargain prices." A company with an 18% return on capital over twenty years can yield astonishing results, even if the price you pay initially seems expensive.

Moats and Competitive Advantages#

Munger and Buffett believe that the main factor of great companies is their enduring competitive advantages - they call it "moats." Just as moats protect castles, competitive advantages enable companies to withstand the elimination brought by competitors or changing markets. Examples of moats include loyal brands (like See's Candies) or large distribution systems that are hard to compete with (like Coca-Cola). Therefore,
Berkshire Hathaway advises its companies to widen their moats every year. This does not necessarily mean earning more profits every year but enhancing the company's strategic position to meet long-term challenges.

Managing Affairs#

The father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, never considered management quality in his value investing principles, partly because the audience for his book was the general public, who had no opportunity to talk to or assess management, and partly because he was inherently distrustful of management.
But Munger and Buffett believe that management can make a huge difference. For example, the famous CEO Jack Welch brought tremendous change to General Electric, while the manager of Westinghouse did not. Munger looks for management that is 1) extraordinarily skilled and 2) trustworthy.

Company Valuation#

Of course, to achieve substantial returns, it is not only necessary to find excellent companies but also to find excellent companies at reasonable prices. If the price is too high, even excellent companies can be poor investments.
Take horse racing as an example. Based on the horse's records, weight, health, etc., the best horses are often obvious, and they are clearly better than sick horses with poor records. But the odds have already reflected this - the odds for the best horse might be 2 to 1, while the odds for the bad horse might be 50 to 1. Which is more cost-effective? It is still unclear.

5. Character and Living a Good Life#

In summary, Charlie Munger is considered a person of strong character - diligent, humble, and constantly learning. He often talks about the qualities of a happy and productive life in his speeches.

How to Live Happily#

Keep your expectations low.
Have a sense of humor.
Immerse yourself in the love of friends and family.
Figure out what lifestyle you want most. You might indeed work 80 hours a week for 15 years to become a partner in a law firm, just to gain the right to do more of the same work. But if you don't want to do that, it may not be suitable for you.
To get what you want, first work hard to obtain what you want.
Avoid self-pity. Self-pity only backfires and does not change your situation. If you do not indulge in self-pity, you will have an advantage over many people because it is a common reaction. Munger has a friend who carries a stack of business cards, and when he hears self-pitying comments, he gives that person a card that says, "Your story has touched my heart. I have never heard of anyone who has encountered as much misfortune as you."
Surround yourself with people you admire. Do not work under people you do not want to become.
Work hard. Munger likes the word "diligence" because its common meaning is "sit down until you finish it."
Anticipate trouble. Then you will know how to avoid it.

Moral Character and Honesty#

Munger cares deeply about reputation - the reputation of Berkshire Hathaway, its subsidiaries, and his own. He wants the people he works with and the managers of the companies he wants to acquire to be honest and upright. Companies with trustworthy brands have a competitive advantage that can be maintained long-term. Trust takes a long time to build, but can disappear in an instant.

"When you borrow someone else's car, you must fill it up before returning it." People will notice these small things.
Past records are important; if you can cultivate an indispensable quality like honesty, you will have a huge advantage in the world.

Continuous Learning#

Munger and Buffett are both known for their curiosity and extensive reading.

"In all the smart people I have known in my life (across a wide range of topics), none of them have not been continuous readers - none, zero. The amount Warren reads and the amount I read will surprise you. My children all mock me. They think I am a book with a few legs sticking out."
"You need to have a strong interest in understanding the reasons behind things happening. This mindset, if maintained over the long term, will gradually enhance your ability to focus on reality. If you lack this mindset, even if you have a high IQ, you are destined to fail."
Every day, strive to make yourself a little smarter than when you woke up.

Work Hard#

Without effort, there will be no success.

Munger believes that passion is more important than talent or intelligence. Many companies under Berkshire have people who are passionate about their work.
Munger and Buffett are both known for their extensive reading. But just reading is not enough; you also need the courage to choose the right ideas and do good with them.

Choosing a Career#

What should young people look for in their careers? According to Charlie, you should try to follow three basic rules, although it is almost impossible to meet all three, but you should still try:

Don’t sell things you wouldn’t buy yourself.
Don’t work for anyone you don’t respect or admire.
Only work with people you like.

Old Age#

According to a passage from Cicero's "On Old Age":

"The best armor against old age is to live a life in Madrid before old age. Devote your life to pursuing useful knowledge, glorious actions, and practicing virtue; those who strive to improve themselves from a young age will reap the happiest fruits in old age; not only because these will never leave a person, even in extreme old age; but also because the conscience witnesses our life lived well, combined with the memories of past good deeds, brings inexpressible care to the soul."

If you want to watch, here is an interesting complete graduation speech video:

Five lessons from Charlie Munger's "Poor Charlie's Almanack."

The key to secular knowledge is objectivity and a multidisciplinary approach.

"For a person holding a hammer, every problem looks like a nail."

"For a person holding a hammer, there is a simple solution - having rich skills across multiple disciplines (more tools)."

"Great ideas in every discipline have the most significant impact. There are not many of them, and their interactions are not complex, so you cannot figure them out."

"Look for truly effective great ideas from all directions."

Learning history will bring you immense benefits throughout your life.

Charlie first focuses on what should be avoided, that is, what should not be done. He does this by studying history. In history, you can also find successes and replicate those ideas.

"I think if you were friends with Adam Smith, you would learn better. It sounds interesting to be friends with 'deceased great figures,' but if you spend your life being friends with deceased great figures who have the right ideas, I think it will elevate your life and education."

"Cicero has a saying: If a person does not know what happened before he was born, then his life is like a child's."

"Seek correct judgments by collecting instances of wrong judgments."

Resigning is not a bad thing.

Quitting is often understood as giving up - unwilling to put in the effort. While effort sometimes has its time and place, it is also essential to ensure that your efforts are not in vain.

"Life is like a poker game; when you hold your favorite hand, sometimes you must learn to fold."

"An inability to cope with cognitive denial is a common reason for people's bankruptcy. You have made a significant commitment to something. You have invested energy and money. The more you invest, the more the principle of consistency will make you feel, 'Now it must work. If I invest a little more, it will work.'"

"People go bankrupt because they cannot stop, rethink, and say, 'I can give this up and continue to fight. I do not need to obsessively pursue this thing, or I will collapse.'"

To get something you want, the most reliable way is to make yourself worthy of it. What you want to obtain, you should also give.
The right love should be based on admiration, and we should love those sages who educate us.
Gaining wisdom is a moral responsibility: continuous learning.
Human society can only develop after inventing the methods of invention; only by learning the methods of learning can one progress.
Having a multidisciplinary mindset is essential for living efficiently and maturely.
Adopting reverse thinking often makes problems easier to solve.
Speak and act diligently.
Reverse thinking. Reverse thinking can help you solve problems that positive thinking cannot solve.
For example, what will cause us to fail in life? What should we avoid? Laziness and being untrustworthy. Even excellent people who are untrustworthy will have a miserable end. So we should avoid laziness and being untrustworthy. Another thing to avoid is extreme ideological consciousness because it can cause people to lose their rationality and fall into a strong ideological danger. I have a rule to tell myself: I feel I have no right to hold an opinion unless I can refute my position better than my opponent.
Another person's rule is: You don't need to have hope to persist.
The reason your life is going poorly: you are overspending your money for enjoyment.
In summary, jealousy, resentment, hatred, and self-pity are all disastrous states of mind. People who indulge in excessive self-pity can become almost paranoid, and paranoia is one of the hardest things to reverse. You should not fall into the emotion of self-pity; self-pity is of no help and the most useless. If you can avoid it, your advantages will far exceed those of others.
To persuade others, appeal to their interests, not to reason. Even when your motives are noble.
Perverse incentive mechanisms have the power to control people's behavior, and people should avoid being influenced by them; reverse working relationships should also be avoided.
Be good at making lists and think systematically when doing things.
Maximizing inequality can often yield remarkable results. There are two types of people in the world: those who are truly knowledgeable and have put in the effort, and those who only master the skills of parroting.
If you want to excel in a field, you must have a strong interest in it. I can force myself to do many things, but I cannot excel in things I have no strong interest in.
Be a diligent person.
Avoid extreme ideologies.
Jealousy, resentment, hatred, and self-pity are all disastrous states of mind.
Avoid generating "self-serving biases" while allowing others to have "self-serving biases." If you want to persuade others, appeal to their interests, not to reason.
Avoid being driven by perverse incentive mechanisms.
Avoid contradictory working relationships.
Develop habits that allow you to remain objective and fair, and the habit of checking checklists.
Maximizing inequality can often yield remarkable results.
If you want to excel in a field, you must have a strong interest in it.
Every misfortune in life, no matter how unfortunate, is an opportunity for exercise.

Seventeen, always be ready to welcome trouble.
One more thing: Trust, mutual trust is the best system, build your own web of trust. (If a marriage contract is 47 pages long, then it is better not to get married.)

Interactive eBook of "Poor Charlie's Almanack"

Link: https://www.stripe.press/poor-charlies-almanack/cover

The famous billionaire Charlie Munger recently passed away, and the American payment company Stripe has turned Munger's work "Poor Charlie's Almanack" into an online interactive eBook. Stripe has a dedicated website showcasing various classic interactive eBooks they have produced (https://press.stripe.com/), totaling 15 books, and the website and eBook effects are very cool.
Interactive eBook of "Poor Charlie's Almanack"

Link: https://www.stripe.press/poor-charlies-almanack/cover

"Poor Charlie's Almanack" In-depth Reading Notes: A Comprehensive Analysis of Munger's Life Philosophy and Investment Wisdom#

"Poor Charlie's Almanack" In-depth Reading Notes: A Comprehensive Analysis of Munger's Life Philosophy and Investment Wisdom

Disclaimer: 1. The content quoted in this article is marked with references at the end;
2. All images in the article are generated by Midjourney.

PART.01

Origin

I have long heard of this book, which is known as the "Bible of Value Investing," with over 2 million copies published in China. I once bought a physical copy and skimmed through it, leaving little impression. Feeling the market warming up, I wanted to use the card box note-taking method to read it again, hoping to gain something.

PART.02

Five-in-One Book Breakdown

(Swipe left and right to see more)

PART.03

Main Content

This book consists of three major parts: a biography of Munger compiled by others, his methods of living, learning, and decision-making, and his own talks and speeches, as well as media reports and comments.

1. Biography of Munger Compiled by Others: Introduces his life and background. His father was a local lawyer, he studied physics in high school, dropped out of college (math major), joined the U.S. Air Force as an astronomy officer, and after retiring, entered Harvard Law School, graduating and co-founding a law firm and partnership until he met Buffett.

2. Learning and Decision-Making Methods: Details Munger's investment evaluation process, investment principles, checklists, and how to use "multidisciplinary thinking models" for business analysis and evaluation. It also explores the methods Munger employs in business decision-making, including his "Lollapalooza Effect" (the huge effect produced by the combination of multiple factors) and reverse thinking.

3. Munger's Own Talks and Speeches: Includes Munger's impromptu talks, covering his views on the keys to success, Berkshire Hathaway, investment advice, market commentary, and criticism of corporate management.

4. Munger's Speeches: Contains 11 speeches by Munger on various occasions, covering universal wisdom, investment management, business relationships, and charitable fund investment practices. Personally, I believe this part is the essence of the book, where you can see a candid, rational, and straightforward teacher imparting wisdom to students, not lacking in ruthless criticism of the accounting and derivatives of the time. Excerpts are as follows:

I think every time you see the term EBITDA (i.e., earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), you should replace it with "GP profit."

--- Chapter 3 P357

A large number of people absurdly cling to wrong ideas. Keynes said:

"Introducing new ideas is not very difficult; the hard part is clearing out the old ideas."

The spirit of not self-deceiving is the best spirit you can have. It is very powerful because it is so rare.

--- Chapter 3 P388

Many young businessmen ask us this question. It is a smart question: you see a wealthy old man and ask him, "How can I become like you?"

Every day when you get up, strive to be a little smarter than you were before. Complete your tasks seriously and excellently. Slowly, you will make progress, but that progress may not be quick.

But you can lay a good foundation for rapid progress... Move forward a little every day. In the end—if you live long enough—most people get what they deserve.

--- Chapter 3 P400

I like the model used to simplify the concept of the stock market—the pool betting system in horse racing. If you stop and think about it, the pool betting system is actually a market. Everyone places bets, and the odds change according to the bets. The stock market is the same.

--- Chapter 4 P523

So if your professors do not teach you the correct interdisciplinary methods—if every professor wants to overuse his own model and discard the important models of other disciplines—you can correct that foolish practice yourself. Just because he is a fool does not mean you have to become one. You can learn models from other disciplines that solve problems better. As long as you develop the right thinking habits, you can do this.

---- Chapter 4 P597

3. Media Reports and Comments

First, Articles, Reports, and Comments: Includes articles and comments about Munger and Berkshire Hathaway, as well as Munger's criticisms of accounting, stock options, financial institutions, and derivatives.

PART.04

A Major Treasure

A major treasure that Munger repeatedly emphasizes in the book is interdisciplinary thinking, and I will summarize human misjudgment psychology under its psychological sub-item. In fact, the term "psychology" appears 259 times in the book's TOP5 high-frequency words, highlighting its importance.

Below is a framework summarized from the book's interdisciplinary thinking, including key theories mentioned in the book:

Chapter 11 "Human Misjudgment Psychology" is specifically written by Munger for this book, stating that "because of this, he considers certain psychological factors that lead to human misjudgment as the most important thinking models for judging investment opportunities." First, I will list 25 principles of misjudgment, and in the next article, I will analyze them with examples from around me.

Super response tendency to rewards and punishments
Liking/loving tendency
Disliking/hating tendency
Avoiding doubt tendency
Avoiding inconsistency tendency
Curiosity tendency
Kantian fairness tendency
Envy/jealousy tendency
Reciprocity tendency
Tendency influenced by simple associations
Simple psychological denial to avoid pain
Overrating oneself tendency
Overoptimism tendency
Super response tendency to deprivation
Social proof tendency
Contrast error response tendency
Stress influence tendency
Error in measuring availability tendency
Forgetting tendency when not used
Chemical error influence tendency
Aging - error influence tendency
Authority - error influence tendency
Nonsense tendency
Reason valuing tendency
Lollapalooza

PART.05

My Permanent Card

From the reading summary, I extracted my permanent card,

(Swipe left and right to see more)

PART.06

Final Thoughts

"Poor Charlie's Almanack" is indeed a treasure trove. I plan to divide it into two parts; the first part mainly introduces the main content and showcases my permanent card, while the second part will analyze cases based on interdisciplinary models. If anyone has good suggestions, please leave them in the comments. Let's explore and treasure hunt together!

References

【U.S.】 Peter Kaufman, ed. Li Jihong, trans. "Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Wisdom of Charlie Munger," CITIC Press.

"Poor Charlie's Almanack" In-depth Reading Notes 2: Reverse Thinking Helps You Avoid Mistakes
Disclaimer: 1. The content quoted in this article is marked with references at the end;
2. All images in the article are generated by Midjourney.

Thanks in Advance

As of now, over 850 people have read the in-depth notes on "Poor Charlie's Almanack," and 28 fortunate friends have followed me. Thank you very much!

Among them, Shunshun is the first follower of my public account. Thank you!

Just like a child playing with sand on the beach, among thousands, a fortunate person comes to take a look, sit down, and chat. I hope everyone can leave suggestions in the comments section to avoid self-indulgence.

PART.01

Origin

In the previous in-depth reading notes on "Poor Charlie's Almanack," I mainly introduced its general content framework and core ideas. However, I feel that merely understanding the core ideas may have limited help for our learning, life, and work. I want to continue writing from Munger's perspective based on the thinking methods in the text, analyzing a case, posing questions, applying its core ideas for analysis, and deepening understanding, hoping to help friends.

In light of this, I read "The Munger Way" 1, "Awakening" 2, and "Thinking Models" 3 to expand my thinking.

PART.02

Case Analysis

I was shocked to hear that several stores of the well-known restaurant chain "Tian Tai" (Simply Thai) in Shanghai have closed down. Once the pioneer of Thai cuisine in Shanghai, it used to be the "king of queues" in large shopping malls, with the sound of calling numbers echoing.

The above image is from Interface News.

In a comment below a news article, I saw that one of Tian Tai's stores was offering a promotion of "Recharge 1000, Get 300 Free." If my family of three goes to this store for dinner on the weekend, and we see promotional ads and the manager's introduction saying, "This promotion is only for this weekend. You come often, it's still very cost-effective." What should I do? Let's see my dialogue with Munger:

Dialogue with Munger 1

Fat Bookworm

This "Recharge 1000, Get 300 Free" promotion is very cost-effective! I considered it using reverse thinking; only if the store closes down can I lose the 1000 yuan I recharge.

This brand is quite famous in Shanghai and has been operating for over 20 years. Looking at the occupancy rate and location, it should not close down!

The weekend promotion is about to end; I am going to recharge! Don't stop me!

Munger

Fat Worm, calm down! There is nothing wrong with considering it using reverse thinking, but have you objectively evaluated the operating conditions of this store?

You may have made common misjudgments, such as the super response tendency caused by inappropriate incentives, overrating oneself tendency, overoptimism tendency, and stress influence tendency (due to the limited time of the promotion).

Dialogue with Munger 2

Fat Bookworm

Hmm, I will calm down! So how can I objectively evaluate the operating conditions of this store?

Munger

Cash flow is a very important indicator for businesses, but we generally do not have access to it. We can think this way: if cash flow is good, employee benefits must be good; otherwise, there will be issues with social security payments, although there are exceptions.

You can ask the waitstaff about their income and whether social security is paid on time, or check the company's annual report on third-party websites.

I checked, the company had 436 people paying social security in 2019, 114 in 2020 (due to the mask situation), 261 in 2021, 231 in 2022, and 168 in 2023. The company's registered amount was 65.89 million dollars before 2021, but it suddenly dropped to 10 million dollars in 2022.

Not optimistic! Now recharging is like a sheep entering a tiger's mouth!

PART.04

The Relationship Between Munger's Four Major Weapons

![Image](https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/JKBZt4dPzSDLoChATGbmwMPJExNNkVr61PEANjPQ