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It is better to manage the army than to manage the people. And the enemy.

Probability theory goes entrepreneurship.

Originally, the decimal system was used because in early human history, it was convenient to count using their 10 fingers, which eventually formed the decimal system. When you use your thumb to count the joints of the other four fingers, you have exactly 12, so the duodecimal system was created. Later, when the joints were not enough, a finger was bent down on the left hand after each complete count, resulting in the sexagesimal system.

There are many examples like this in the book. This is the clearest and most understandable business book I have ever read. The author simplifies complex business decisions into mathematical concepts, making it surprisingly easy to understand. It's amazing to realize that it's actually like this. Learning to approach things from a mathematical perspective makes the business world not so difficult.

The overall success rate of entrepreneurship = 100% - (100% - basic success rate) ^ number of attempts.

This is the formula for entrepreneurial success given by the author. To understand it, you first need to know what the basic success rate is. The basic success rate is greater than 0 and less than 100%. It is a multi-factor variable influenced by the entrepreneur's personal abilities (such as previous entrepreneurial experience, team management experience, etc.), the characteristics of the industry, the level of competition, various policies, and unexpected situations.

Because of the many uncertainties, the basic success rate is generally not high. Only 2% of small and medium-sized enterprises in China can survive for 10 years. Assuming your basic success rate is 10 times the average level, it would be 20%.

20% is still not high, what should you do? This requires increasing the number of attempts.

If you randomly draw one card from five cards and the basic success rate of winning the first prize and getting an iPhone is 1/5, which is 20%.

If you didn't win on the first try, you can try again on the second try. What is the probability of winning on the second try? 36%.

Why is it 36%? Because the probability of not winning on the first try is 80%, and the probability of not winning on the second try is also 80%. The probability of not winning on both tries is 80% * 80% = 64%. So the probability of winning at least once is 1 - 64% = 36%. Although your basic success rate is still 20%, by increasing the number of attempts, your overall success rate becomes 36%.

What if you try three times? You will find that the overall success rate becomes 48.8%.

Entrepreneurship is the same. The more you persist and don't give up, the higher your overall success rate will be. And because the experience of entrepreneurial failure can be continuously accumulated, your basic success rate will continue to improve. This is why we often say "failure is the mother of success".

Okay, let's go back to the original formula, the overall success rate of entrepreneurship = 100% - (100% - basic success rate) ^ number of attempts. If you want to succeed in entrepreneurship, you either increase the basic success rate or increase the number of attempts, thereby maximizing the overall success rate.

Increasing the basic success rate requires you to be eager for knowledge, constantly learn, improve personal abilities, understand the characteristics of the industry, and avoid risks. Increasing the number of attempts requires you to persist and not give up. When your basic success rate remains at 20%, if you try 10 times, the overall success rate will reach 99.44%.

This is why we say that the right things should be done repeatedly. The right things are things that can increase the basic success rate, and doing them repeatedly is to increase the number of attempts.

You must have heard of this question: Should a company hire employees with good abilities or good attitudes?

For a company, both abilities and attitudes are important. Either abilities or attitudes alone is a binary thinking. In fact, abilities and attitudes are not on the same dimension, so they cannot be compared together. When faced with such a question, we may consider thinking in higher dimensions.

In one dimension, there is a straight line, with good abilities on one end and good attitudes on the other end. We must choose one or the other, either left or right, and cannot have both.

But if we move to two dimensions, we can draw a coordinate system, with abilities on the horizontal axis and attitudes on the vertical axis. We can divide employees into four quadrants:

Quadrant 1: Stars, with strong abilities and good attitudes.

Quadrant 2: Novices, with weak abilities but good attitudes.

Quadrant 3: Mediocre, with weak abilities and poor attitudes.

Quadrant 4: Mavericks, with strong abilities but poor attitudes.

This is also how Alibaba classifies its employees. Different strategies for recruitment can be formulated for employees in different quadrants. "Those with both abilities and virtues will be given special attention and promotion; those with virtues but without abilities will be cultivated and utilized; those with abilities but without virtues will be restricted from recruitment; those without abilities and virtues will never be employed."

Why can we cultivate and utilize those with virtues but without abilities, while we restrict the recruitment of those with abilities but without virtues?

Here, we need to move up to another dimension and introduce a third dimension: plasticity.

Obviously, personal morality is related to one's experiences and worldview, and it is difficult to reshape. However, if the attitude is correct, work abilities can be quickly developed.

Therefore, with the introduction of plasticity, the two-dimensional coordinate system can be upgraded to a three-dimensional coordinate system. Novices have weak abilities, good attitudes, and strong plasticity. Mavericks have strong abilities, poor attitudes, and low plasticity. Therefore, novices are cultivated and utilized, while mavericks are restricted from recruitment.

So, when we face complex problems, how do we execute in lower dimensions?

Let's look at this example: How to solve the problem of global warming? How to solve the problem of carbon emissions? This problem seems very complex, but Bill Gates gave a "decomposition formula" for solving the problem of carbon emissions in a TED talk, which is: CO2 = P * S * E * C;

P is Population, the population;

S is Service Per Person, the number of services each person needs, such as driving, cooking, etc.;

E is Energy Per Service, the amount of energy used for each service;

C is CO2 Per Unit Energy, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of energy.

With this formula, to solve the problem of carbon emissions, we need to solve the population problem (P), the problem of environmentally friendly lifestyles (S), the problem of energy efficiency (E), and the problem of carbon emissions from energy production (C). A grand problem can be broken down into four separate problems to be solved, which is dimensional reduction execution.

Let's start with a question:

Yesterday, I started climbing the mountain at 8 am and reached the summit at 8 pm. After a night's sleep, today I started descending from the summit at 8 am and reached the foot of the mountain at 8 pm. Is there a moment when yesterday's me and today's me are standing in the same position?

How would you think about this question?

Let's consider your answer.

Actually, this question is very simple, you just need to change your thinking. You can transform this question into: You and another person, one walking down from the summit and the other walking up from the foot of the mountain, are they bound to meet on the same road?

Then the point where you meet each other is the point where yesterday's me and today's me meet.

This question is a Microsoft interview question that has stumped many people. But actually, you just need to change your thinking to solve it. Changing thinking is very important and can help simplify complex problems in our daily lives. For example, when eating at a restaurant and spending 200 yuan, and the restaurant says that if you top up 1000 yuan, the meal will be free, it means you are buying something worth 1200 yuan for 1000 yuan, which is a discount of 8.3%.

By changing the way of thinking, you will find that behind some fancy actions, there are actually very simple data, and we can directly address the essence of the problem.

A person's logic determines their thinking, behavior, and ultimately determines the upper limit of their life. So, improve yourself.

Web 1.0: The internet model before 2003, the static HTML era of the web, although dynamic HTML also appeared, mainly for human-computer dialogue, such as email, BBS, QQ, chat rooms, etc.

Web 2.0: The term for a new type of internet application since 2003, which has evolved from passive "reading" to "writing" and "co-creation"; from passive acceptance of information to active creation of internet information... The biggest feature is the emergence of a large amount of micro-content and the involvement of "people", forming social networks, especially the presence of "friends", allowing information to flow between individuals... From the basic functions of social software, the motivations of users to use such software, and the nature of operating websites, it can be divided into six categories (Huang Jianjun's classification):

  1. Creation and publication type, such as blogs, Sina blogs, Tianya forums. These media provide users with a platform for creation and publication.

  2. Resource sharing type, such as YouTube, Flickr, Tudou. On these websites, users share resources by uploading self-made content and organize and navigate information through tags.

  3. Hotspot aggregation type, such as Digg and Buzz. These websites rely on user-submitted content and use user ratings to rank content. This ranking result often triggers the "Matthew effect" and accelerates the spread of a specific topic.

  4. Collaborative editing type, such as Wikipedia. From the perspective of online publishing, Wikipedia has used the collective wisdom of netizens to complete the writing and online publishing of encyclopedias. It has now become the most influential online knowledge base.

  5. Social service type, such as Facebook, MySpace, school intranet. These websites mainly rely on personal social networks to produce and disseminate information.

  6. Online game type, such as Second Life and various online games.

Web 3.0: A brand new era of human-computer dialogue, where micro-information can interact, integrate information becomes more diverse and humanized, and provides automatic optimization of resource combinations and intelligent search, which will become the main direction of people's future lives (people don't need all the information on the internet, just the information they need).

Impact and role on the internet:

Web 1.0, Web 2.0, and Web 3.0 transform marketing strategies through more effective market segmentation, target positioning, differentiation, and channel strategies, creating greater value for customers, and planning and implementing more effective strategies for internet marketing concepts, distribution strategies, promotion strategies, product prices, services, and creativity, to meet the needs of individual and organizational customers.

In summary, in the Web 1.0 era, website editors used scissors and glue to organize various information together based on their experience, often referring to traditional media.

In the Web 2.0 era, it is the era of "my internet", with the main feature being personal media. Blogs and forums are composed of articles and comments posted by individuals. However, blogs highlight the individuality of the theme publisher, while forums reflect collective behavior. RSS reflects the personal media feature of the internet surrounding each subscriber. Due to the participation of a large number of users, the content on the internet grows rapidly.

Web 3.0 aims to connect the web pages produced in the Web 2.0 era, connect them through cooperative relationships, and achieve automatic adjustment and optimization of cooperative relationships.

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