On October 7, 2023, the Hamas organization located in Gaza launched an attack on Israel. Subsequently, Israel and Hamas entered a state of war, with countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq also being drawn into the conflict.
In a post on the X platform, the Israeli military stated that its forces intercepted a rocket allegedly launched from northern Gaza. The Kamal Adwan Hospital in Gaza confirmed the Israeli bombing. The hospital's director told Al Jazeera that the Israeli army had bombed the hospital for the fifth time in recent weeks. According to Wafa News Agency, in the West Bank town of Beita, south of Nablus, an Israeli military vehicle struck a 17-year-old boy.
The Gaza Civil Defense Department stated that its team had rescued the bodies of three killed Palestinians and "some injured individuals" from the attack site.
Conflict Map
Image | Map of the Israel-Palestine Conflict
According to reporters from Al Jazeera Arabic channel, an attack struck a house behind a besieged health facility, resulting in at least seven Palestinian deaths.
According to Al Jazeera reporters, Israeli airstrikes on the Shujaiya neighborhood of Gaza City resulted in at least three deaths.
Al Jazeera received reports that Israel launched another attack near the besieged Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza, which has faced frequent attacks for several weeks. Al Jazeera reported that Israel attacked a facility located in Beit Lahiya, causing casualties.
The director of the nearby Nasir Hospital in Khan Younis, Atif Khut, stated that the Israeli attack on a tent camp in the al-Mawasi area of southern Gaza yesterday has been confirmed, resulting in 21 deaths and 28 injuries.
The Palestinian Prisoners Association stated that since the outbreak of the Gaza war, Israel has been holding the bodies of 46 Palestinians who died in Israeli prisons.
The Israeli military stated that in the past week, during ground operations in the occupied West Bank, its forces "killed seven Palestinian soldiers from the air" and arrested 50 "wanted individuals."
The Gaza Health Ministry reported that since October 7, 2023, Israeli attacks on Gaza have resulted in at least 44,580 deaths and 105,739 injuries.
The ministry added that during the most recent 24-hour reporting period, 48 Palestinians died and 201 were injured.
Israel-Palestine Conflict Map
Image | Gaza Strip Region
The Israeli army implemented a blockade along the Jordan border south of the Dead Sea after claiming to have received reports of "suspicious activity" in the area.
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir stated that Israel should stop supplying fuel to the Gaza Strip until the Israeli captives are released.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant condemned reports that he was retracting a controversial policy that ended administrative detention for Israeli settlers.
Reuters cited medical sources saying that Israel attacked tents of displaced Palestinians in the so-called "humanitarian zone" in southern Gaza, resulting in at least 10 deaths.
Al Jazeera reporters and the Palestinian Wafa News Agency reported that clashes erupted in the village of Zububa near the occupied West Bank city of Jenin.
Earlier, Al Jazeera reported that the Israeli military stated that a suspect was "shot dead" after attacking Israeli forces with a car in the occupied West Bank town of Deir Qaddis near Ramallah. According to the Palestinian news agency Wafa, a 16-year-old child was shot in the foot by live ammunition during an Israeli raid in the occupied West Bank city of Nablus.
The director of the field hospital in Gaza told Al Jazeera that the number of infants who died from the cold in the enclave has risen to seven in recent days.
Image | Map of the Israel-Palestine Conflict
Image | Gaza Strip Region
Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has resigned from the Knesset after months of disagreements with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the conduct of the Gaza war. The Israeli military's Arabic spokesperson Avichay Adraee issued a new order requiring Palestinians to evacuate an area in the northwest of the city—Zone D3—or face imminent attack. The Palestinian official news agency Wafa stated that the temporary ban was a result of Al Jazeera broadcasting "inciting material" and "interfering" in Palestinian internal affairs. Al Jazeera's reporting on clashes between the Palestinian Authority's security forces and local resistance fighters in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin angered the Palestinian Authority. Hamas stated that the Palestinian Authority's decision to suspend Al Jazeera was "a clear violation of press freedom" and an act of "oppression" aimed at silencing people.
The Israeli military stated that they discovered three projectiles launched from northern Gaza entering Israel, marking the latest in a series of projectiles fired from the ravaged Palestinian territory.
Reporters from Al Jazeera Arabic channel cited medical sources stating that Israeli drones bombed a school sheltering displaced persons in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, injuring over 40 Palestinians.
According to reporters from Al Jazeera Arabic channel, the Israeli military detained several factory workers in the village of Imatin, east of the occupied West Bank city of Qalqilya.
The Gaza Health Ministry reported that since October 7, 2023, Israeli genocide has resulted in 45,854 Palestinian deaths and 109,139 injuries.
According to reporters from Al Jazeera Arabic channel, the Israeli military carried out three "massacres" in Gaza within 24 hours, resulting in 48 deaths and 75 injuries, with those injured being sent to hospitals.
Image | Map of the Israel-Palestine Conflict
Israel stated that Hamas has yet to provide the identities of the 34 hostages the organization announced it was prepared to release in the first phase of a potential exchange agreement.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated, "The villages of Funduq, Nablus, and Jenin should look like Jabalia, so that Kfar Saba does not become Kfar Aza, God bless," referring to a town in central Israel and a community near Gaza that was affected by the attacks on October 7, 2023.
According to Anadolu Agency, Israeli settlers blocked the convoy of local governance minister Sami Hijjawi south of the occupied West Bank city of Hebron in Masafer Yatta.
The U.S. Secretary of State told reporters in South Korea that the U.S. hopes to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza within the next two weeks and bring out the hostages.
A court document shows that the Ramallah District Court in the occupied West Bank has ordered the closure of several Al Jazeera websites for four months—this is the latest restriction imposed by the Palestinian Authority on the network.
According to Al Jazeera's field reporters, Israel bombed a house east of Deir Ballut in central Gaza, causing casualties.
The Israeli military demolished the home of a Palestinian resident in the occupied East Jerusalem neighborhood of Jabal Mukaber. The Palestinian Prisoners Association (PPS) and the Prisoners Affairs Authority stated that among the 54 Palestinian prisoners killed by Israel, 35 were from Gaza, although the Israelis have hidden "dozens of bodies" among the "detained in Gaza," their identities are known.
According to the besieged Gaza Health Ministry, since October 7, 2023, Israel has caused at least 45,885 Palestinian deaths and 109,196 injuries in Gaza.
It added that in the past 24 hours, at least 31 people died.
Image | Map of the Israel-Palestine Conflict
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for a "large-scale operation" in the occupied West Bank.
According to Israeli Army Radio, an Israeli soldier was "seriously injured" in a gunfight near Nablus in the occupied West Bank last night.
Hamas condemned the Palestinian Authority for shooting at a car in Atil, north of Tulkarem in the occupied West Bank.
On October 7, 2023, the Hamas organization located in Gaza launched an attack on Israel. Subsequently, Israel and Hamas entered a state of war, with countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq also being drawn into the conflict.
Today marks the 462nd day, let us take a look at the latest developments in the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Al Jazeera reporters reported that Israel launched an attack on Nasir Street west of Gaza City, resulting in at least one Palestinian death and others injured.
Medical sources told Al Jazeera Arabic channel reporters that Israeli attacks in Gaza have resulted in at least 16 deaths.
According to local sources cited by Wafa News Agency, two Palestinians were attacked by Israeli forces in the city of Hebron in the occupied West Bank.
According to the Gaza Health Ministry, in the past 24 hours, Israeli attacks in Gaza have resulted in at least 70 Palestinian deaths and 104 injuries.
The ministry added that since October 7, the latest death toll has reached 46,006.
The Gaza Health Ministry stated in a Telegram message that Israel's war on Gaza has also resulted in 109,378 injuries.
Image | Map of the Israel-Palestine Conflict
Image | Gaza Strip Region
The Israeli military claims to have confirmed that several individuals were loading weapons into vehicles within a "military building" used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
Israeli news channel 12 reported that over 800 parents of Israeli soldiers and reservists urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the bloody war in Gaza.
The Israeli military has imposed new restrictions on media reporting on active-duty soldiers, as concerns grow over the risk of legal action against troops abroad for alleged involvement in war crimes in Gaza.
According to data released by Israel, 891 soldiers have been killed and 5,569 injured in this round of conflict. The number of soldier fatalities has reached a record high for Israel in decades, reflecting the extreme intensity of this conflict.
Why are Israel's losses so severe? One important reason is that Hamas's opponents are no longer isolated. With the outbreak of the conflict, Yemen's Houthi forces quickly responded, publicly declaring support for Hamas and launching large-scale attacks on Israeli and American merchant ships in the Red Sea using rockets, missiles, and drones.
The Houthi forces also claimed that the attacks would continue until "the aggression stops" and "the siege of Gaza is lifted." This action has further expanded the scope of the Israel-Palestine conflict and even impacted the global situation.
The actions of the Houthi forces are particularly significant, as the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea is one of the most important maritime transport routes in the world, with its narrowest point being only 30 kilometers, serving as a key waterway connecting the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. To avoid the threat posed by the Houthi forces, many international merchant ships have been forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, leading to a significant increase in freight costs on Eurasian shipping routes and a major impact on the global maritime trade network.
In addition, the Houthi forces frequently launched ballistic missiles at Israeli territory, especially the "Palestinian-2" type hypersonic missiles, putting immense pressure on Israel's defense systems. This intense bombardment clearly exceeds Hamas's individual capabilities.
In such a complex situation, Israel has had to mobilize over 300,000 reservists, setting a historical record. Although the strategy of "using violence to counter violence" has given the Israeli military an advantage in military equipment to some extent, it has also come at a great cost. The number of soldier casualties continues to rise, and the domestic suicide rate has also sharply increased.
According to military reports, between 2023 and 2024, 38 soldiers have died by suicide, with 28 of them dying after the outbreak of the conflict. The prolonged intense fighting has taken a significant toll on the soldiers' mental and physical well-being, with stress, fear, and the breakdown of family and social relationships becoming heavy burdens for many soldiers, even forming a "death knell."
Meanwhile, the U.S. military is also deeply entangled in this situation. Since January 2024, the U.S. military has begun striking Houthi forces, focusing on high-precision missile launchers and other key facilities in Sana'a, Hodeidah, and other areas.
However, the Houthi forces' counterattacks have been exceptionally tenacious, with Iran shooting down 14 MQ-9 Reaper drones. On December 21, 2024, the Houthi forces successfully attacked a U.S. aircraft carrier. In the chaos, a U.S. cruiser mistakenly shot down one of its own F/A-18 fighter jets, creating a very dangerous situation.
At the same time, Israeli citizens and the families of hostages have taken to the streets to protest, demanding an immediate ceasefire from the government. However, the U.S. government's stance is at odds with the sentiments of the Israeli public.
On January 4, 2024, news broke that the Biden administration plans to sell $8 billion worth of weapons to Israel, including a large number of airstrike weapons. This decision is clearly aimed at continuing to support Israel's military actions and prolonging the war.
In the face of such a situation, the U.S. still insists that Israel continue to fight. According to U.S. media reports on January 4, the State Department notified Congress on January 3 that the Biden administration plans to sell various weapons to Israel, including AIM-120C-8 air-to-air missiles, 155mm artillery shells, AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, small diameter bombs, and Joint Direct Attack Munition tail kits, most of which are used for airstrikes.
Clearly, the strategic cooperation between the U.S. and Israel remains steadfast, and the war seems far from over.
The recent Israel-Palestine conflict has become a global focus, with increasing intensity. The casualty figures from the Israeli military are staggering, "since last October, 891 have died, and 5,569 have been injured, reaching a peak in decades." Hamas is growing stronger, the Houthi forces are stirring up trouble, and the Red Sea shipping routes are damaged, affecting global trade. The U.S. military's involvement is mired in difficulties, while the U.S. is busy selling weapons to Israel. In this context, where will the Israel-Palestine conflict lead the Middle East? When will peace arrive? The Middle East is rife with conflicts, and the Israel-Palestine conflict has a long history. Since the establishment of Israel, territorial disputes have continued for decades. This round of the Israel-Palestine conflict has lasted a long time, setting a record for Israel's operations in Gaza. The Houthi forces have attacked Israeli and American merchant ships in the Red Sea, declaring that they will not cease attacks until the siege is lifted, "Israel has helplessly summoned over 300,000 reservists."
The war has deeply harmed the people, with 38 soldiers dying from suicide-related causes between 2023 and 2024, 28 of whom fell after the outbreak of the conflict. Intense combat, psychological pressure, and family breakdown are all contributing factors. Since January 2024, the U.S. has been heavily attacking Houthi forces from Sana'a to Hodeidah, targeting missile launchers and other facilities, "but the Biden administration plans to provide Israel with $8 billion worth of airstrike weapons," which is a self-serving act by the U.S. to maintain its hegemony in the Middle East. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is complex, with Israel constantly taking actions for its own development and expansion, while surrounding countries and organizations fight for survival and Palestinian rights.
The intelligence officials from both sides are involved, and the mediation topics involve specific intelligence and security affairs, highlighting the importance of intelligence expertise in both context and terminology. The members of the Clinton administration's Middle East peace team who previously participated in the summit mainly consisted of secretaries of state, national security advisors, and Middle East peace envoys, lacking specific and systematic knowledge of intelligence affairs, making it difficult to mediate and resolve the Israel-Palestine security conflict at the summit. In the context of the Israel-Palestine conflict, to restore security cooperation, the U.S. needs to mediate and persuade officials responsible for local security and intelligence affairs from both sides, which requires more specialized intelligence knowledge, skills, and experience—something that the personnel from the State Department and other U.S. agencies stationed locally lack.
- Confidentiality needs. All diplomatic activities have varying degrees of confidentiality. The U.S.-led Middle East peace process involves a significant diplomatic policy shift of "turning enemies into friends," involving multiple interests, and maintaining secrecy is an important prerequisite for continuously advancing the peace process. The diplomatic negotiations that led to the Oslo Accords were based on an "official-semi-official + public-secret" model. The diplomatic activities of the U.S. in the subsequent Israel-Palestine peace process—providing security assistance to the Palestinian Authority and mediating the Israel-Palestine conflict to save the peace process—have unique or higher confidentiality needs.
The Oslo Accords were a series of agreements signed in 1993 between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in Oslo, Norway, aimed at resolving the long-standing conflict between Israel and Palestine and providing a framework for establishing an independent Palestinian state. The signing of the accords marked an important step in the Israel-Palestine peace process.
Background#
The negotiation process for the Oslo Accords began in 1992, with both sides engaging in secret mediation in Norway. The core content of the accords includes:
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Mutual Recognition: For the first time, Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) mutually recognized each other in the accords, with Palestinians recognizing Israel's existence and Israel recognizing the PLO as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.
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Palestinian Authority: The accords stipulated that the PLO would gain autonomy in certain areas of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, establishing the Palestinian National Authority (PA) to govern these areas.
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Phased Implementation: The content of the accords was planned to be implemented gradually, including the advancement of a two-state solution, with parts of the Palestinian territories being returned to the Palestinians, although some important contentious issues (such as the status of Jerusalem, borders, and security issues) would require further negotiation.
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Withdrawal and Transfer: Israel agreed to gradually withdraw from certain areas of the West Bank and Gaza Strip and to transfer security and administrative control to the Palestinians.
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Final Status Negotiations: The accords also stipulated that both sides would engage in final status negotiations on core issues such as Jerusalem, the refugee issue, and settlements, striving to reach a final peace agreement.
Important Events#
- Signing Ceremony: On September 13, 1993, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat, and U.S. President Bill Clinton officially signed the Oslo Accords in the White House, witnessed by the American president.
- Nobel Peace Prize: Due to the groundbreaking progress of the Oslo Accords, Yitzhak Rabin, Yasser Arafat, and Shimon Peres (Israeli Foreign Minister) jointly received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994.
Impact of the Accords#
- Positive Impact: The Oslo Accords brought about a historic breakthrough, providing a negotiation framework for both sides and reducing violence in some areas.
- Problems and Challenges: Despite some progress, core issues such as the status of Jerusalem and the return of Palestinian refugees remain unresolved. Over time, the accords have faced continuous challenges and breakdowns, especially with the resurgence of violent conflicts.
Overall, while the Oslo Accords did not fully achieve peace, they provided an important reference and framework for subsequent negotiations and conflicts.
The U.S. provision of security assistance to the Palestinian Authority directly involves intelligence affairs, requiring implementation in accordance with the inherent confidentiality of intelligence professions, such as training programs, equipment, and intelligence structures. The confidentiality system is an important aspect of intelligence system construction. The implementation details of U.S. security assistance to Palestine need to be conducted under extremely secretive conditions, primarily due to the content and nature of such assistance, which is largely related to the professional confidentiality needs mentioned above, and this is precisely what the State Department and other professional agencies lack.
After the Israel-Palestine conflict interrupted the peace process, the Clinton administration attempted to save the peace process through diplomatic mediation. In a series of peace summits, the U.S. mediation needs to find common ground and differences based on understanding the proposals of the security officials from both sides, and to timely propose its own plans. The internal forces opposing the peace process on both sides have been encouraged by the deteriorating situation of the Israel-Palestine conflict, actively seeking excuses to expand and escalate the conflict, thereby terminating the peace process. Especially after the resumption of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the legitimacy of Arafat and the Palestinian Authority has been increasingly questioned by Palestinian extremist forces. In this context, any leak of compromise proposals would become an excuse for internal extremist forces to incite public opposition to reconciliation, jeopardizing negotiations. From the experience of past Middle East peace summits, leaks from the U.S. side often intentionally or unintentionally come from the institutional agencies or groups where U.S. mediators are located, such as the State Department, the Department of Defense, the White House, and the president's Middle East peace advisory team. To ensure that U.S. mediation occurs under extreme confidentiality, the mediators leading the restoration of security cooperation between Israel and Palestine at the peace summits need to have a more confidential institutional background. On the ground of the Israel-Palestine conflict, U.S. mediation aims to prevent conflicts from igniting at any moment, and mediators, while shuttling and persuading both sides of the conflict, understand the demands and even specific action plans and capabilities of the mediation targets. The leakage of such information would not only provide an excuse for extremist forces to reignite the conflict but also facilitate terrorist attacks.
Therefore, U.S. mediation on the front lines of the Israel-Palestine conflict needs to be entrusted to institutions and personnel that regard confidentiality as integral to their institutional culture. Confidentiality accompanies various specific actions of agencies such as the State Department and the Department of Defense to varying degrees, but it is not an inherent attribute of these agencies, making it difficult to meet the confidentiality needs required for mediation on the front lines of the Middle East Israel-Palestine conflict.
The situation quickly evolved into a professional intelligence agency guided by modern national intelligence perspectives, with its professional characteristics aligning with the professional requirements of diplomatic activities in the Israel-Palestine peace process. Compared to other major powers, the CIA started relatively late but quickly established itself in the global intelligence community with its significant professional characteristics: utilizing modern technological intelligence collection methods, analysis methods based on the humanities, and covert overseas operations as strategic tools. To strengthen its professional skills, the CIA has its own training institutions in the U.S. to teach intelligence analysis and covert operation skills, and it has established cooperative relationships with domestic educational institutions to facilitate talent recruitment and knowledge updating.
In the process of providing intelligence-based security assistance to the Palestinian Authority, the CIA offers targeted training and equipment to Palestinian intelligence agencies based on assessments of intelligence professional needs. The CIA's covert operations during the Cold War included providing equipment and training to anti-Soviet resistance forces, forming a complete mechanism and procedures for providing security assistance overseas. When applied to assist the Palestinian Authority, this mechanism can quickly deliver assistance materials and training within two years, enhancing the counter-terrorism capabilities of the Palestinian Authority's intelligence agencies. Tenet, serving as both Deputy Director and Director of the CIA, participated in a series of summits led by the Clinton administration to save the Israel-Palestine peace process, responsible for mediating the Israel-Palestine security conflict. In the ten years prior to his appointment as Deputy Director of the CIA, Tenet held various positions, including member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, director of the committee's office, and special assistant for intelligence affairs at the National Security Council. Tenet's senior intelligence background, combined with his involvement in intelligence affairs management after joining the CIA, enabled the high-level U.S.-Palestine intelligence dialogues he hosted during the Middle East peace summits to be conducted in professional contexts using security intelligence terminology. The security details involved in the "Wye River Memorandum" and the "Tenet Plan" reflect Tenet's proficient knowledge of security intelligence; on the front lines of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the professional skills of CIA personnel stationed locally are applied to prevent the escalation of conflicts. In two crisis events mediated by the CIA's Tel Aviv station in March 2002, intelligence personnel successfully resolved the "Arafat's Compound Siege Incident" and the "Bethlehem Church Hostage Incident" with their rapid response, precise professional judgment, negotiation skills, and mature organizational capabilities.
The terms "Wye River Memorandum" and "Tenet Plan" are related to military strategies and cooperation during World War II. Here is a brief overview of them:
1. Wye River Memorandum#
This refers to a series of agreements reached during the Yalta Conference in Crimea in 1945, where the leaders of the U.S., U.K., and Soviet Union discussed the reconstruction of the post-war world order. At the Yalta Conference, Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin engaged in in-depth discussions on issues such as the reorganization of post-war Europe, the partitioning of Germany, and the establishment of the United Nations. Although the memorandum was not named "Wye River Memorandum," it can be understood as one of the frameworks for agreements between major powers after the war.
The main outcomes of the conference include:
- The partitioning and reconstruction of Germany.
- The Soviet Union's agreement to join the war and jointly combat Japan with the U.S.
- The allocation of seats in the United Nations General Assembly.
- The reconstruction of the political landscape in post-war Europe.
This agreement had far-reaching implications; while it set the foundation for the post-war world order, it also laid the groundwork for the beginning of the Cold War due to conflicting interests among different countries.
2. Tenet Plan#
This name refers to a military plan proposed by the U.K. during World War II. The Tenet Plan was actually developed by senior British military personnel to ensure the security of the Atlantic shipping lanes and U.S. support. It was designed to address the threat posed by German submarines to Allied supply lines and to ensure the safety of combat vessels in the Atlantic.
The core points of the Tenet Plan include:
- The plan included a series of maritime defense measures.
- Strengthening the joint defense between North America and Europe.
- Enhancing anti-submarine warfare and shipping security.
The goal of the plan was to ensure strategic cooperation between the U.K. and the U.S., preventing a comprehensive blockade of Atlantic shipping by Germany.
These two plans and memoranda illustrate the various diplomatic and military strategies adopted by the Allies during World War II to secure victory.
The newly emerging strategic concept in the U.S. is primarily understood through the analysis of the CIA's diplomatic activities in the Israel-Palestine peace process, exploring the strategic logic of "intelligence diplomacy." Between 1994 and 2002, the CIA's diplomatic activities in the Israel-Palestine peace process mainly included attempts to promote Israel-Palestine security cooperation by providing security assistance to the Palestinian Authority (1994-1996) and attempts to mediate and resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict to save the peace process. This article focuses on explaining the reasons for the CIA's involvement in diplomatic activities in the Israel-Palestine peace process from the perspective of the "demand-supply" of strategic tools, discussing the specific needs of diplomatic activities in the Israel-Palestine peace process and the characteristics and capabilities of the CIA that meet these needs, thereby demonstrating that the logic of intelligence agencies' participation in diplomatic activities lies in the alignment of specific diplomatic needs with the characteristics and capabilities of intelligence agencies. This logic helps us explore and understand the "intelligence diplomacy" of the U.S. in the new era of great power competition: on the one hand, the U.S. great power competition strategy still regards diplomacy as an important strategic tool, but the U.S. diplomatic activities in certain areas—such as "deterrence" and "de-confliction, de-risking"—have specific needs; on the other hand, the characteristics and capabilities of the U.S. intelligence community enable it to play a diplomatic role in the new era of great power competition, and the combination of diplomatic needs of the competition strategy with the diplomatic qualifications of the intelligence community gives rise to the strategic logic of "intelligence diplomacy." "Intelligence diplomacy" is a newly proposed strategic concept by the U.S. diplomatic, intelligence, and strategic communities, with limited attention from domestic and international academic circles, and there are many issues that require further investigation and research, mainly including the following content.
In recent decades, with the rapid development of science and technology, the situational awareness capabilities of countries around the world, especially military powers, have significantly improved, and the efficiency of obtaining intelligence information has qualitatively increased. However, observing the new round of the Israel-Palestine conflict, this still cannot completely change the uncertainty of war.
Before the outbreak of this round of the Israel-Palestine conflict, Israel constructed a high-tech separation wall 65 kilometers long and 8 meters high in the border area adjacent to Gaza, deployed reconnaissance satellites such as "Horizon-8" and "Ofek-13" in space, and used hacking software like "Black Hawk Eye" in cyberspace to monitor suspicious communications in real-time, effectively building a multi-domain "observation post" between Israel and Palestine.
▲ "Ofek-13" intelligence satellite entering space. (Source: Israeli Ministry of Defense)
To counter Israel's high-tech intelligence and surveillance network and achieve a surprise attack, Hamas has taken a series of counter-surveillance measures. On the one hand, Hamas strictly kept the surprise attack operation confidential, with only a few core members aware of the action plan; on the other hand, Hamas chose October 7 as the date for the attack, both to commemorate the Fourth Middle East War and because it is the Jewish people's Sabbath, when the Israeli military's readiness is relatively relaxed. To further enhance the element of surprise, Hamas initiated the attack in the early morning, catching multiple Israeli military outposts off guard. Hamas's successful surprise attack indicates that even the most advanced intelligence and surveillance networks have blind spots, and through strict confidentiality, battlefield deception, and innovative tactics, it is still possible to launch a war that catches the opponent off guard.
After the outbreak of the new round of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Israeli military has extensively utilized artificial intelligence technology to improve combat effectiveness, initiating a new mode of operation.
According to media reports, this operational mode of the Israeli military roughly consists of five steps: First, using AI systems like "Lavender" to identify and mark members of armed organizations; second, relying on the "Where's Daddy" system to track marked individuals and pinpoint their residences; third, having human intelligence analysts review the targets; fourth, using "Fire Factory" software to automatically match weapons and calculate ammunition quantities based on the nature and characteristics of the targets, and prioritize attacks on targets; fifth, combat aircraft carry out strikes based on instructions issued by "Fire Factory."
"Fire Factory" software view (Source: Israel Defense Forces)
Analysts point out that the identification capabilities of artificial intelligence systems are not absolutely accurate and can cause significant harm to civilians. Israeli media reported that military personnel stated they sometimes have only 20 seconds to "review" the attack targets recommended by artificial intelligence before deciding to launch an attack, and senior military officials encourage "automatic approval" of kill lists provided by the AI system, "even though they are aware that the system has about a 10% error rate." Some experts have pointed out that the new round of the Israel-Palestine conflict indicates that new technologies are to some extent dominating humanity, "autonomous warfare is no longer a future concept; it has arrived, and the consequences are frightening."
Cities have always been battlegrounds of contention. In this round of the Israel-Palestine conflict, due to the significant disparity in strength between the two sides, Hamas primarily relied on urban areas for defense, making cities the main battlefield for both sides.
Hamas was well-prepared for urban warfare, targeting the weaknesses of the Israeli military for flexible and mobile operations. In terms of troop organization, small combat teams were the basic operational units, dispersed across different neighborhoods to operate independently and launch surprise attacks on the Israeli military. In terms of weapon usage, they prioritized using RPG-7 rockets and anti-tank missiles to target vulnerable points on Israeli tanks and armored vehicles. Tactically, they utilized sturdy buildings and tunnel networks to conduct urban guerrilla warfare, employing ambushes and sniping tactics, and retreating after attacks, leaving the Israeli military unable to respond effectively. Additionally, Hamas employed tactics such as surrounding and attacking reinforcements and setting traps, causing significant casualties to the Israeli military.
By leveraging the unique environment of urban areas, Hamas effectively weakened the Israeli military's advantages in aerial reconnaissance, precision firepower, and armored protection, achieving notable results in engagements with the Israeli military. The Israeli military's elite Golani Brigade was forced to withdraw from combat due to high casualties resulting from its "incompatibility" with urban warfare. The tug-of-war between both sides shows that today, cities remain tough nuts for the attacking side to crack and serve as armor for the defending side.
After the Israeli military implemented "Operation Protective Edge," the RAND Corporation summarized three lessons, two of which were related to enhancing cognitive warfare capabilities. In this round of the Israel-Palestine conflict, both sides have placed a high emphasis on cognitive warfare, employing various strategic means to conduct cognitive offense and defense.
Israel has utilized its close ties with Western media to promptly disclose news of Hamas's attacks to the outside world, repeatedly portraying images of Israeli military and civilian hostages to reinforce its "victim" image and create "legitimacy" for retaliatory actions. After launching retaliatory actions, Israel accused Hamas of using civilians as human shields to provide "justification" for bombing operations; it extensively promoted reports of Israeli military actions on social media to garner international support; and implemented information blockades on the Gaza Strip through physical internet shutdowns, technical censorship, and restrictions on interviews to prevent unfavorable information from leaking.
As the weaker side, Hamas has regarded cognitive warfare as an important means of asymmetric warfare. After the successful surprise attack, Hamas promptly uploaded battle videos on social media platforms like Telegram, and subsequently regularly released videos of ambushes and sniping against Israeli forces, showcasing its combat capabilities and boosting the morale of anti-Israel and anti-U.S. forces. At the same time, Hamas has continuously reiterated that the surprise attack is a "resistance against Israeli oppression," aimed at "achieving true independence for the Palestinian nation," and has specifically released the "Aqsa Flood Operation Report," comprehensively explaining the reasons for the operation. Additionally, Hamas has widely reported on the civilian casualties caused by Israeli military actions through Al Jazeera and other Arab media.
On May 26, 2024, Hamas released this image in a video, showing the weapons of Israeli soldiers that Hamas claims to have killed and kidnapped in the Gaza Strip. (Source: Telegram)
Today, the unprecedented humanitarian disaster caused by Israeli military actions in the Gaza Strip is known worldwide. The U.S. has publicly called on Israel to exercise restraint, European countries like the U.K. have suspended arms sales to Israel, countries like Bolivia have severed diplomatic ties with Israel or recalled their ambassadors, and the United Nations General Assembly has overwhelmingly passed a resolution calling for Israel to end its illegal occupation of Palestinian territories... These facts highlight Israel's passive and isolated position in the international community.
According to the latest statistics from the Palestinian Health Department in Gaza, over the past year, Israeli military actions in Gaza have resulted in approximately 42,000 Palestinian deaths and nearly 100,000 injuries. This means that the number of deaths and injuries among Palestinians due to the conflict accounts for over 6% of the total population of the Gaza Strip, with the number of Palestinian deaths, especially civilian deaths, exceeding those in previous Middle Eastern wars.
The greatest lesson from the conflict over the past year is that military force cannot bring security, let alone peace. To achieve true peace, the obsession with resolving disputes through military means must be completely abandoned. The immediate realization of a lasting ceasefire is the urgent hope of the people of Gaza and the overwhelming consensus of the international community. Implementing the "two-state solution" is the only viable way to end the "cycle of violence" in the Middle East. War tests humanity's conscience and justice, and peace requires the wisdom and determination of all nations. All countries that love peace and advocate for justice should increase their efforts to promote reconciliation and dialogue, working together to bring an end to the flames of war as soon as possible.